Will Russia Limit Itself to Oreshnik Strikes on Ukraine if the West Escalates Attacks on Russia?

Yves here. Andrew Korybko is underplaying what might happen next in terms of Russian responses to Ukraine’s efforts to escalate as Russia’s war machine grind through Ukraine, at an unmistakably accelerating pace. Recall that Russia is reported to have over two armies fully trained, about 240,000 soldiers, in reserve. They could be committed to the battlefield if Russia decides to up its tempo, or Russia could hold them back in case the West attempts to do Something Stoopid or use them to police an occupation.
Korbyko mentions the recent assassination attempt on Putin when he visited Kursk in a helicopter, which has been ignored by the Western media and per John Helmer and Ray McGovern in a recent talk on Dialogue Works, underplayed in Russia. Per Helmer and McGovern, they believe that Russia has chosen to present their intelligence findings to their US counterparts, since both countries do cooperate in counter-terrorism efforts. It’s hard to think that US did not provide targeting or surveillance data. The question then is how the US tries to ‘splain this. Helmer awfully politely called this testing the US to see if it can be trusted.
Korybko omits that Ukraine has just engaged in a massive drone attack on Russia, which is still continuing at the pace of 100 more drones a night, which Russia has parried. Alexander Mercouris argued that this campaign has to have been prepared well in advance with Ukraine’s Western allies and could have represented a resource commitment (certainly in terms of planning) on the order of the failed summer counteroffensive of 2024.
Mark Sleboda offered a theory in a new talk with Danny Haiphong (starting at 59:00), that Ukraine and the West were engaging in an air defense war of attrition, with these drone strikes intended to deplete Russia’s air defenses and also provide information about their location and operation. Sleboda argues that the Ukraine’s allies may be planning a major missile salvo on the hope that Russian air defenses will have been so worn down so that this attack can do real damage.
We’ll put aside the fact World War II showed that air attacks that are not sufficient to destroy the opponent harden its resolve. If Sleboda is correct, it’s remarkable to see how Ukraine and its backers have talked themselves into believing that would at best be a hard punch, not a knockout blow, is worth the enormous risks. Clearly a lot of reputations, fragile egos and rice bowls at stake.
Note per the discussion below that Germany has taken to tap dancing about the status of its Taurus missiles, which have a 500km range and are thus longer-range than anything Ukraine has deployed before. Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz repeated rejected US and NATO pressure to let Ukraine use them. New Chancellor Freidrich Merz in a round about way confirmed that their use had actually been approved during the Biden era (even if Scholz had put the brakes on their immediate use) and commentators contend that they are already in Ukraine. Sleboda and others indicate that Ukraine may have gotten 150 out of Germany’s total current operating stock of 250.
The Taurus missiles are air launched and they could reach Moscow. Sleboda points out the only plane that Ukraine has that could deliver them is the F-16, which Ukraine appears to have used only in a defensive capacity, well away from the line of contact. Scott Ritter has argued that the odds of an F-16 pilot surviving an attack on the front lines is 20%, that Russia has the ability to target them shortly after takeoff. That’s before getting to the fact that Ukraine has not demonstrated great competence in their use, with a high number of accidents and friendly fire incidents.
Finally, everyone with an operating brain cell knows that the US would at a minimum be providing satellite information for targeting, and Germany would have to assist in the use of Taurus missiles. Many Russian hard-liners are upset that Russian has not delivered on its warning that Western support of an attack on pre-2014 Russia would be deemed as an act of war by the involved nations. The Ukraine incursion into Kursk clearly had Western backing.
In other words, the West is pushing Russia to respond by striking Western cities, or alternatively, Western military assets, such as bases in Poland. From RT in Russia could target Berlin if German missiles hit Moscow – RT editor-in-chief:
Russia would not rule out a direct strike on Berlin if German personnel help Ukraine target Moscow with German-supplied Taurus missiles, RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan, has warned…
German officials, however, have not confirmed any decision to send the Taurus system, and a Bild report on Wednesday suggested that the government in Berlin still considers doing so “taboo.”
In a post on Wednesday, Simonyan warned that Germany could face dire consequences if the Taurus is ever used for attacking the Russian capital. “In Moscow offices, it is being discussed that if German troops strike Moscow with German weapons… the only option left for us is to strike Berlin,” she said.
She went on to explain that a Taurus strike on Moscow would have to be prepared and executed by German service members because the Ukrainians “cannot maintain [the Taurus] or program it for flight missions.”
Responding to Merz’s comments on lifting the restrictions, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, noted that if such a decision had indeed been made, it would lead to “serious escalation” and undermine current efforts to settle the Ukraine conflict.
Simonyan is not a Russian official. Nevertheless, she looks to be a vehicle for telling the West in simple noun-verb sentences of what Russia has tried telling them before and they have ignored, since Putin has yet to make good on these threats.
The reason for Russian restraint is likely that they know what we ought to know. Scott Ritter has said that gaming a direct conflict between the US and Russia always results in nuclear war.
Answering any such attack merely with Oreshniks in Ukraine would thus not be proportionate unless Russia delivered on another threat, of striking decision centers, which means among other things Kiev, and/or no longer pulling its punches on prostrating Ukraine via taking out its electric grid and electric production.
By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website
Step by step, Trump is turning “Sleepy Joe Biden’s War” into his own, exactly as Steve Bannon warned him not to do.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s revelation that the West removed all restrictions on the range of the weapons that they supplied to Ukraine brought about a feeling of déjà vu from late last year. Russia warned them against doing this at the time, the moment of truth finally arrived once they defied it, and then Putin climbed the escalation ladder by authoring the use of a hitherto top-secret hypersonic medium-range Oreshnik missile against Ukraine. History might therefore be about to repeat itself.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the West’s reported decision as “quite dangerous”, while Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov assessed that it was evidently “made quite some time ago and kept under wraps”, which aligns with what Merz himself later claimed when clarifying his comments. Nevertheless, this policy has yet to result in any strategically significant attacks, let alone reshape the conflict’s dynamics in Ukraine’s favor. If that changes, however, then Russia might drop more Oreshniks.
This could happen even in the absence of those two scenario triggers. Trump ominously posted on Tuesday that “What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD. He’s playing with fire!”. This follows his post about how “[Putin] has gone absolutely CRAZY!”, which was analyzed here as proof of him being maliciously misinformed by his trusted advisors and/or him creating the pretext for US escalation.
It’s therefore clear that Trump is preparing for the possibility that peace talks might soon collapse, in advance of which he’s trying to spin a self-serving narrative. By denigrating Putin as “crazy” and implying that “bad things..REALLY BAD” might soon happen to Russia, Trump is signaling tacit approval of forthcoming Ukrainian provocations. Other than the use of long-range American missiles against strategic targets, this could take the form of a nationwide assassination-terrorism campaign.
It shouldn’t be forgotten that Russia blamed Ukraine for spring 2024’s Crocus terrorist attack, accused it of plotting to assassinate Putin during last July’s Naval Day parade in St. Petersburg, and just revealed that a swarm of their drones tried to take down his helicopter during last week’s visit to Kursk. Moreover, Trump was suspiciously silent after Zelensky implicitly threatened to attack Moscow’s Victory Day parade, so it’s possible that he might finally “let Ukraine loose” even if he walks away from the conflict.
In the event that Ukraine’s long-range Western missiles strike strategically significant targets and/or a nationwide assassination-terrorism campaign is commenced, especially if there’s any credible threat to Putin or other senior officials, then Russia might retaliate by dropping more Oreshniks. It’s holding back for the time being, apparently to avoid provoking Trump into crossing the Rubicon through the abovementioned means, but it’ll have no more reason to remain restrained if he ends up doing that first.
All told, Russian-US relations could soon deteriorate depending on what Ukraine does, especially if the Kremlin concludes that it’s with a wink and a nod from America. There’s no way that Russia won’t respond if Ukraine escalates the conflict. This could very likely take the form of more Oreshnik strikes, which could in turn be exploited by Trump as the pretext for more direct US escalation. Step by step, Trump is turning “Sleepy Joe Biden’s War” into his own, exactly as Steve Bannon warned him not to do.
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