ECONOMY

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/5/2024 | naked capitalism

Photo of Missouri Digital News Missouri Digital NewsNovember 7, 2024
15 13 minutes read

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Patient readers, brunch was quite something today, so please forgive any solecisms or infelicities. –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, The Celery Fields, Sarasota, Florida, United States.

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Election 2024 roundup.
  2. Gram Parson’s birthday.
  3. Welding.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

2024

Results: Handy map:

Certainly Trump’s solid win in the popular vote is legitimizing, and makes the kind of spook manipulations I was concerned about, like a color revolution, far less likely, though the nature and role of the Intelligence Community as an extra-constitutional entity remains a question. (Sadly, CIA Democrat Elissa Slotkin may yet pull out a win.)

Trump’s popular vote win was also unexpected:

“Harris to concede Wednesday afternoon” [Associated Press]. “Vice President Kamala Harris will deliver a concession speech Wednesday at 4 p.m., her office announced. Harris will speak at Howard University, her alma mater in Washington, where her supporters watched returns Tuesday night before being sent home after midnight as President-elect Donald Trump pulled ahead in battleground state results.” • In the election Live Blog, I published a schedule of returns from the Harris campaign: “Thursday, 11/07 & Beyond: If results are very close in any state, the race still may not be called.” But events moved much, much faster than the Harris campaign expected!

“Harris congratulates Trump on winning the presidential race” [Politico]. “Kamala Harris has called Donald Trump to congratulate him on winning the 2024 presidential election, according to a senior Harris aide. The vice president talked about the importance of a peaceful transfer of power and being a president for all Americans, the aide said.” • Oh. Hopefully she’s not lying on the “peaceful transfer” part; I still don’t see how you just hand the keys to the White House over to someone you devoutly believe is a fascist. (unless they were lying all along). RussiaGate was launched, IIRC, in the Clinton campaign plane the day after the election, so maybe Kamala’s people were hatching the same sort of plot before 4:00pm today. We shall see.

* * *

A compendium of reactions. –lambert

Class: Harris always did well in the Hamptons:

Shoutout to Ferguson and Storm:

Trump being an expert in sniffing out weakness. Turns out the Democrat weakness was class, as one would expect from a party whose base is the PMC. Sadly, the only way to express this is through immigration. “Lived experience,” doncha know.

Universal concrete material benefits:

* * *

Missouri:

Counties: “Early Results Show a Red Shift Across the U.S.” [New York Times]: “Of the counties with nearly complete results, more than 90 percent shifted in favor of former President Donald J. Trump in the 2024 presidential election.”

Kamala’s underperformance:

See the community note. There are 3.144 counties in the United States, and 58/3,144 = 0.01844783715, which is zero for all practical purposes. (I also think Twitter, or, I suppose, Musk, deservers credit for the “Community Notes” feature. I find it useful.)

Data point (1):

Data point (2):

The Blob: I wonder how the “thirty five year national security expert” is feeling?

Perhaps all the endorsements from generals and spooks and national security goons were — hear me out — a negative?

Our Democracy: Misery:

One party’s candidate was chosen in primaries; the other’s was selected by a small cabal. One party’s base hated its leadership, and used the primary mechanism to get rid of it. The other party wouldn’t even consider such a thing, and operates strictly by seniority. Which party is more democratic?

Democrat Leadership: The entire Democrat leadership ought to be purged, for starters:

Of course, that won’t happen, and the entire party has been made over in the image of the failed leaders (Exhibit A: AOC), so even if it did happen, it would make no differenece.

Identity Politics: “A historic realignment” –Trump

Abortion: “Reproductive Freedom” outperformed Kamala:

This suggests, perhaps counter-intuitively, that the Supreme Court in Dobbs, which left abortion up to the states, will in fact maximize poltically feasible codification (assuming Trump keeps his promise not to push for a national ban. No doubt the Christianists will push for a national ban when Congress reconvenes, so we’ll see what happens. Personally, I think Trump would like the whole issue, and its zealots, to go away).

Our Famously Free Press:

The “dark” meme reappears:

Fascism:

I disagree with scholar-of-fascism Paxton’s claim that this is a fascist moment (see extended discussion here). I don’t think it’s evidence-based, let alone based on scholarship. That said, I agree wholeheartedly with him here: “Whatever Trumpism is, it’s coming ‘from below as a mass phenomenon, and the leaders are running to keep ahead of it.’” Democrats will, of course, be incapable of even perceiving this “mass phenomenon,” let alone analyzing it. Ditto RINOs. Today’s Republicans? I don’t know.

Liberal Inability to Self-Reflect: “Would it not in that case be simpler for the government to dissolve the people and elect another?” — Bertolt Brecht

The sad thing is that even though Kolbert is at The New Yorker, I’ve enjoyed her writing on climate.

Schadenfreude: The Bidens (1): Ouch!

The Bidens (2): Biden’s counter-programming, whatever the cause, cannot have been helpful:

(“I want her to know it was me” is a Game of Thrones reference.)

Get the word “Lincoln” out of your mouths:

The fall of House Cheney:


* * *

Lambert here: This post brings Water Cooler’s daily election 2024 coverage to an end, although the election will continue to be a rich vein of inquiry as the transition to a Trump administration takes place (assuming, of course, that there is not a third, successful assassination attempt, or some late-breaking lawfare imbroglio). Let me briefly review my methodology. Since this is not my blog, I don’t make “calls” and certainly don’t make endorsements. Rather, I lay out my evidence and thinking and trust the readers to make use of them as they may. Back in December 2023 I wrote, looking forward, or at least ahead, to the year’s coverage:

340 days is a long time in politics. In the formulation of stability vs. volatility — that is, the view that the race is a “regular order” of Trump v. Biden, vs. the view that it is by no means certain that Trump and/or Biden will nominated[1], elected, and allowed to assume office[2], and further, that the means by which the parties will select their candidates is unknown[3], and even the nature of victory is unknown — I am firmly on the side of volatility[4].

[1] In fact, Biden was defenestrated. [2] We can’t be sure: The transition period is a long time of politics. [3] Kamala was selected not in a primary, but by a small cabal. [4] I think the upheaval on election day comes under the heading of volatility (in addition to Trump being the second President since Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms). Further:

Hence my grimly detailed and methodical pointillist method; we need to know as much about all the players and fields as we possibly can, because we cannot know who will emerge from the pack[5], or even, at this point, why[6]. The powers that be can rig the election all they want, but if the dogs won’t eat the rigging, what then? And if they will, what then? So strap yourselves in.

[5] Robert Kennedy. [6] Uncommitted and Stein re: genocide.

I feel that the “grimly detailed and methodical pointillist method” cannot but have given readers insight into splendor and miseries of electoral politics, the strengths and weaknesses of the parties and the players, and “vibes.” What I did not anticipate, going into 2024, was the sheer volume and solidity of the bullshit I would have to contend with, and the overwhelming commitment of the press to the victory of one candidate/party. These two factors made the daily task of plucking nuggets from the news flow much more time-consuming and, indeed, risky than I have become accustomed to, because literally every data point had to be “assessed,” as if I were some sort of spook myself. Another way of saying this is that the PMC are my people, the press being a subset thereof; and I have been accustomed to being able to apply a proper discount to a large array of PMC work products, venues, etc., shortcutting the assessment process. Not so this year! Another methodological issue was representing the ebb and flow of candidate support in the campaign. Here, I decided to use the RealClearPolitics (RCP) poll averages every week. RCP is a conservative source, but and so its averages protected me (and you) from polling error and manipulation. Throughout, potential paths to victory for the ultimate winner were always clear. I’m also happy to have kept drawing that red box around Pennsylvania, where the Blue Wall first cracked. (I was surprised that Trump won the popular vote, but I never did track it, since it wasn’t relevant to victory). Here endeth my criticism/self-criticism for Water Cooler’s election coverage.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Stats Watch

There are no official statistics of interest today.

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 57 Greed (previous close: 43 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 57 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Nov 6 at 2:00:00 PM ET.

Musical Interlude

Gram Parsons’ birthday was the other day:

Book Nook

“Report finds ‘shocking and dispiriting’ fall in children reading for pleasure” [Guardian]. In the UK: “Children’s reading enjoyment has fallen to its lowest level in almost two decades, with just one in three young people saying that they enjoy reading in their free time, according to a new survey. Only 34.6% of eight- to 18-year-olds surveyed by the National Literacy Trust (NLT) said that they enjoy reading in their spare time. This is the lowest level recorded by the charity since it began surveying children about their reading habits 19 years ago, representing an 8.8 percentage point drop since last year. It is also part of a broader downward trend since 2016, when almost two in three children said that they enjoyed reading.” • That’s a steep drop-off!

Gallery

What color!

Zeitgeist Watch

Finally!

News of the Wired

“Only 5.3% of welders in the US are women. After years as a writing professor, I became one − here’s what I learned” [The Conversation]. “Recognizing the good pay and job security, U.S. women have moved in greater numbers into skilled trades such as welding and fabrication within the past 10 years. From 2017 to 2022, the number of women in trades rose from about 241,000 to nearly 354,000. That’s an increase of about 47%. Even so, women still constitute just 5.3% of welders in the United States.” • Worth a read, particularly if you’re a woman thinking of entering the field.

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Milton:

Milton writes: “Fall Colors around of Big Pine along Hwy 395 in the Eastern Sierra. This was taken as I took the turn off to the Bristlecone Pine forests.”

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert’s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals:

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If you hate PayPal, you can email me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will give you directions on how to send a check. Thank you!

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Photo of Missouri Digital News Missouri Digital NewsNovember 7, 2024
15 13 minutes read
Photo of Missouri Digital News

Missouri Digital News

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