By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Have I mentioned that expected this year to be volatile? Here is Kennedy’s speech, live, which is on-going as of this writing [now finished].
UPDATE Hat tip to alert reader marym for the transcript.
I was going to put on my yellow waders and look at Kamala’s DNC speech — I had Sarah Palin’s 2008 acceptance speech all lined up for a genre comparison — but obviously this is more important.
Please consider this a live post as I can put more material together, and talk amongst yourselves.
P.S. Wowers, is Kennedy’s description of the horror that is the modern Democrat party. FAFO, and FO they did, with their ballot manipulation shenanigans.
I was reluctant to launch this post, because I did not hear — and there is no Closed Captioning on YouTube, hence no transcript — sentences as simple as this: “I am suspending my campaign. In Blue or Red States, vote for me. In swing states, I will take myself off the ballot” and “I hereby endorse Donald Trump for President.” The last part I did not hear. However, I just heard:
“Joining the Trump campaign will be a difficult sacrifice for my wife and our chldren.”
So here we are!
Here is the Kennedy clan’s reaction:
I am sharing a personal statement that my family and I have made in response to my brother’s announcement. pic.twitter.com/j7vTTabNYZ
— Kerry Kennedy (@KerryKennedyRFK) August 23, 2024
I disagree. Kennedy explained quite clearly in the beginning of his speech that today’s Democrat Party is not the Democrat Party of JFK or RFK. Alert reader Martin Oline summarized that portion of his speech, right at tbe beginning, as follows:
He says that Kamala Harris dropped out of the 2020 primary without a single vote and yet has been selected by the party to be the chosen candidate for 2024. By doing so they have abandoned democracy and embraced lawfare and manipulated the primary process, using the media to censor his campaign.
Kennedy also went into considerable detail about his difficulties getting on the ballot, and how the Democrats tried to prevent this at every turn (while praising his volunteers, who did indeed do an extra-ordinary job.
BBC was first out of the box on my RSS feed, so here they are: “RFK Jr suspends campaign to ‘throw support’ behind Trump“. A key point:
Before working to elect Trump, Mr Kennedy said he asked to have similar conversations with Ms Harris.
The Harris campaign reaction being “lol, no.”
Then FOX, “Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends campaign, backs Trump for president“:
Kennedy said in Phoenix that the Democratic Party of “waged continual legal warfare [I heard this as “lawfare”] against both President Trump and myself,” and “ran a sham primary.”
“In an honest system, I believe I would have won the election,” he said.
Kennedy’s campaign is asking swing states to remove his name from the ballot because he does not want to be a “spoiler,” he said. He will remain on the ballot in states that he considers “red” or “blue,” he said. “If you live in a blue state, you can vote for me without harming or helping President Trump or or Vice President Harris,” Kennedy said. “In red states, the same will apply.”
Interestingly:
But the relationship between Kennedy and Trump started warming earlier this year, and the two spoke last month after the assassination attempt against Trump and met in person the following day.
Would be a little too much “All things work together for good” if Thomas Crooks brought Trump and Kennedy together… And Kennedy then fixed American’s food supply (which needs fixing). Now, Kennedy seemed to believe that Trump made some sort of commitment to him on that topic — which also means that the extremely attractive framing of “saving America’s children” fell into Trump’s lap, of all people, who knew — but I am hazy on what the commitment was. No doubt it will come up in coverage (or at the rally in Glendale, AZ later today).
“DNC unveils billboards dubbing Trump, Vance, RFK Jr. ‘weird as hell’” [The Hill]. Well, that’s clarifying. So much for “President of all the people” (which anybody over six-years-old knows was West Wing-style boilerplate). “I don’t know what’s weird about wanting to save children from chronic disease. Kamala, why do you think that’s weird?” The wonderful thing about Kennedy throwing his support to Trump to end childhood suffering is that it could give Trump, for once in his life, the moral high ground. It will be interesting to see how Trump handles that, since having the moral high ground will be a very new experience for him.
Pre-speech snark (94.9K followers, looks like a Democrat operative from the timeline):
In a special ceremony later today, RFK Jr. and Donald Trump will press their ears together for the symbolic passing of the brain worm.
— TheRealThelmaJohnson (@TheRealThelmaJ1) August 23, 2024
Thelma: If brain worms mean you don’t commit genocide, I’m all for them (“\s,” in case any goon actually picks this up).
Working to unify all Americans (401.1K followers, “Author, Pastor, Activist, Storyteller”):
RFK Jr endorsing Trump is like E. coli endorsing diarrhea.
— John Pavlovitz (@johnpavlovitz) August 23, 2024
Pastor, eh?
Dude needs to get his knee seen to (768K Followers, “Pro-democracy conservatives Republicans fighting Trump & Trumpism”):
BREAKING
RFK Jr says that one of the main reasons he’s endorsing Trump is because of the former president’s anti-Ukraine views.
A vote for Trump is a vote for Putin. pic.twitter.com/6RtEIKJ3s0
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) August 23, 2024
Shanahan before Kennedy’s announcement:
🚨 JUST NOW: SHANAHAN SAYS THEY ARE “HESITANT” ABOUT JOINING FORCES WITH TRUMP
“The hesitation we have right now in joining forces with Trump is that he has not apologized or publicly come out and said Operation Warp Speed was his fault.
The vaccinations, the lockdowns letting… pic.twitter.com/FD9xU8rJ07
— Lauren Lee (@sheislaurenlee) August 23, 2024
Set up a truth and reconcilation commission. Not only do you get to punt, it might even be a good idea.
Now CBS, “RFK Jr. endorses Trump and suspends presidential campaign.” Key point:
And he held out the distant possibility that if neither Trump nor Harris were able to win 270 electoral votes, tying 269 to 269, “I could conceivably still end up in the White House in a contingent election.”
Harris campaign emits strategist- and press-friendly boilerplate in reaction:
Jen O’Malley Dillon, the chair of Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign, appealed to Kennedy’s supporters in a statement after his announcement Friday.
“For any American out there who is tired of Donald Trump and looking for a new way forward, ours is a campaign for you,” she said. “In order to deliver [what?] for working people and those who feel [are] left behind, we need a leader [sigh] who will you, not just for themselves, and bring us together, not tear us apart. Vice President Harris wants to earn your support.”
Gonna have to pry “fight for” from their cold dead hands. Anyhow, if you want Kennedy’s voters, steal his issues, the way you stole Trump not taxing tips (not a good idea, but Kamala went ahead and stole it).
Polling:
“Trump, Harris campaigns weigh in on RFK Jr. suspending bid” [The Hill].
The Trump campaign released a memo from its pollster, Tony Fabrizio, positing that Trump would gain the majority of Kennedy’s supporters in a head-to-head race against Harris.
The memo cited campaign polling that found Trump drawing more than half of Kennedy’s supporters in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, and a plurality of his supporters in Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
“So, when you hear or see the Harris team and/or the Democrats try and spin otherwise, now that the data clearly paints a different picture,” Fabrizio wrote in the memo. “This is good news for President Trump and his campaign – plain and simple.”
Well, the Trump campaign would do that; I will wait for the Old Guys to express their views, or for next week’s polling. If Kamala gets a low-to-no convention bounce, Kennedy’s well-timed announcement would be the reason.
“Rove: RFK Jr. endorsing Trump could have impact in Georgia, Arizona” [The Hill]. “Republican strategist Karl Rove suggested Wednesday that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsing former President Trump could help the GOP nominee in Georgia and Arizona, two key swing states in November. ‘My gut tells me it probably helps Donald Trump, because the people who were for him because he was a Kennedy, I think they began leaving after Joe Biden pulled out on the 21st, so a small amount of help,’ Rove told Fox News in an interview. ‘But as you know, in a race like this, think about it. Did he have 10,000 followers in Georgia? Did he have 11,000 followers in Arizona? And then how did they split? It’s probably not this positive, but it could have an impact,’ he added.” • If the campaigns are fighting over 100,000 voters (a purely notional figure) then 10,000 would have a material impact.
“RFK Jr. endorses Trump as he suspends presidential campaign” [CNN]. “There is a presumption among Trump’s team and his allies that , according to a recent Pew Research Center survey, though other polls haven’t shown a meaningful difference.” But–
“RFK Jr.’s supporters could still alter a tight presidential race. Trump is banking on it” [CNN]. “At the Republican National Convention last month, Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita told a room full of reporters that their internal polling predicted Kennedy siphoned slightly more votes from Democrats in Michigan and Wisconsin but ‘much more from us’ in , whose 19 Electoral College votes are one of this year’s top prizes and could determine the election. Asked why, LaCivita responded, ‘I don’t know. I haven’t figured it out yet.’” • Hmm.
Kennedy would be in what role?
“Trump Jr. says it would be good to have RFK Jr. at an agency to ‘blow it up’” [The Hill] From August 21 (but after Trump and Kennedy had opened discussions, note well). “Donald Trump Jr., former President Trump’s son, told conservative radio host Glenn Beck that he’s in favor of having independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. take a position in a new Trump administration so he can take a government agency and ‘blow it up.’ ‘I loved the idea, love the idea of giving him some sort of role in some sort of major three-letter entity or whatever it may be and let him blow it up,’ Trump said Wednesday on ‘The Glenn Beck Program.’” • I can think of several TLAs that need blowing up badly — and have yet to see reporting on Trump’s actual offer to Kennedy. I mean, there was a deal, right?
“New in SpyWeek: RFK Jr. as Trump’s CIA Chief?” [SpyTalk]. “Former Gen. Michael Flynn, who briefly served as Trump’s national security advisor and became a much-beloved figure in the QAnon conspiracy community, also said he liked the idea. ‘Make him CIA director, and we can finally learn exactly who killed his uncle, his dad, MLK Jr., Malcolm X, etc.,’ Flynn wrote in a post on X. No word on this from RFK Jr.’s campaign manager (and daughter-in-law), Amaryllis Fox, who did work at the CIA and published a disputed memoir of her time there. Lately, she’s been busy posting the history of CIA covert action on X.” • I think not, unless Kennedy hires a personal food taster and is very careful about the ventilation in his office. (This also doesn’t jibe with Kennedy’s health/food/children agenda.)
“Election Live Updates: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Suspends Campaign and Endorses Trump” [New York Times]. One hour ago: “Trump, taking questions from reporters at a restaurant in Las Vegas, . He called Kennedy ‘beloved.’” Interesting, assuming the Times is reporting accurately. But two hours ago: ‘”With President Trump’s backing,’ Kennedy said, ‘I’m going to staff these agencies with honest scientists.’ He is implying that Trump would have him in such a role if Trump wins the White House. ‘We’re going to reform the entire food system,’ he said.” • “Staff” in what role? This seems like an awfully important detail to leave so fuzzy.
“RFK Jr. says he is suspending presidential campaign to help Trump” [Axios]. “Trump, who Kennedy said Friday has asked him to in his administration, is hosting a rally later in Arizona. He has teased that there will be a ‘special guest’ at the rally.” • “Enlist”? What does that mean? Will the campaigns be integrated? Offices within the Executive Branch are within Trump’s gift. So which office? What is the deal?
UPDATE I have scanned the transcript. This is closest I can come: “If President Trump is elected and honors his word, the vast burden of chronic disease that now demoralizes and bankrupts, the country will disappear.” So we know Trump gave his word — but about what? Not clear. If some kind reader would confirm or disconfirm me in this view, that would be great.
Our democracy:
“Democratic dynasty heir RFK endorses Republican Trump” [New York Post].”‘When a predictably bungled debate performance precipitated the palace coup against President Biden, the same shadowy DNC operatives appointed his successor, also without an election, they installed a candidate who was so unpopular with voters that she dropped out in 2020 without winning a single delegate,’ he said.” • And he was right.
“RFK Jr. endorses Trump ahead of announcement dropping out of presidential election” [The Federalist]. “”I want to thank Bobby, that was very nice,’ Trump said. ‘That’s big. He’s a great guy, respected by everybody.’” • Queens boy makes good!
Time for me to sign off. Some quick reactions–
1) I don’t think Kennedy’s “enlistment” will swing many of voters, but it wouldn’t take many, were they located in the right swing states (“the future is not here, and it is not evenly distributed.” That’s why elections are so fascinating).
2) I do think that Kennedy’s wish to solve America’s child health crisis by fixing food has many advantages. First, it makes all of Kamala’s proposals look like smallball: focus-grouped, tired, and weak (as they indeed are). Second, for once in his life, Trump would have the moral ascendancy (“the children!”). Useful in debate! Third, the proposal needs to be fleshed out and made concrete but with a small-ish attack surface (but no woo woo, although if Big Ag fights it, so much the better). Finally, if Trump really puts his weight behind this big policy idea, it changes the complexion of the race completely, not least because it could give his messaging the focus it has hitherto lacked.
3) For Trump’s sake, I sure hope the campaign staff was on-board with this from the beginning, and that this didn’t come as a shock to them. That they had polling figures to hand argues that they were not surprised.
4) The issue of Kennedy’s position in the executive branch is fuzzy and it should be fixed. I suppose if Kennedy says “Donald and I have a deal, and I’m sure he’ll stick to it” that might be enough. But maybe not. Depends on what Kennedy is in Trump’s mind: Casino to be raped and pillage, or fine old building to be quietly upgraded and maintained…
5) Perhaps I’m not being cynical enough — happens all the time, sigh — but to me Kennedy’s sincerity was evident (although, like courage, the virtue of sincerity is only virtuous depending on the use to which it is put). That is a major asset for the Trump campaign, Trump not being known for his sincerity.
6) Adding, after reading the comments, I should have asked who Kennedy’s food advisors are. If they’re lightweights, or gurus, or woo woo, all bets are off (thinking here of the lunatics that ran Trump’s “election theft” operation as well, who not only butchered the job, but made legitimate complaints harder to raise).
Have I mentioned that this year was going to be volatile?
