2:00PM Water Cooler 10/31/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Bird Song of the Day

Common Nightingale, Les Demoiselles Coiffées de Bédoin, Vaucluse, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, France. Duet!

In Case You Might Miss…

1. Trump garbage truck stunt.
2. Section Three has risen from the grave.
3. Boeing stock remains stable, pensions are the sticking point.

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order (Insurrection)

“Sweeping Section Three under the Rug: A Comment on Trump v. Anderson” (forthcoming) [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, Harvard Law Review]. A restatement (?) of “The Sweep and Force of Section Three; lots of coverage at NC; see here). From the Abstract: ” It did not reject the Colorado Supreme Court’s conclusion that Trump is disqualified from future office, under the standards of Section Three. It did not hold that the events culminating in the January 6 attack on the capitol fell short of the constitutional standard for an “insurrection.” It did not reject the Colorado Supreme Court’s conclusion that Trump had “engaged in” that insurrection. It did not question the Colorado courts’ factual findings concerning Trump’s conduct and intent. And–perhaps contrary to initial appearances, and contrary to the critique of the justices concurring in the judgment only–the Court did not hold that Section Three is legally inoperative without enforcement legislation by Congress. Nothing in the case contradicts the conclusions we reached in our prior scholarship, The Sweep and Force of Section Three, on any of these points. If Donald Trump was constitutionally ineligible to the presidency on March 3, 2024, the day before the Court’s decision, he remained constitutionally ineligible on March 5, the day after its decision. And he remains ineligible today. . Sweeping Section Three under the rug thus may merely have postponed the day of ultimate constitutional reckoning.” “A variety”? Let me skim the PDF… Well, here’s one (page 41). “[W]hat about an action for damages or a criminal prosecution in state court against an unconstitutional pretender to federal office?” • By Alvin Bragg, perhaps? Perhaps a lawyer in the readership can give this a more thorough and competent reading than I can (though holy Lord, what’s all this speculation about the internal workings of the court doing in the body of a law review article?) To me, however, this looks like laying the groundwork for lawfare in the Transition Period. And just in time, too!

The Transition

Lambert here: I don’t expect either party to make nice.

“The 76 dangerous days between the election and the inauguration” [Brian Michael Jenkins, The Hill]. Jenkins is a senior adviser to the president of RAND. “Since 2020, there has been a surge in violent threats against public officials at all levels, violent protests by far-left and far-right extremists, a nationwide rise in domestic terrorist incidents, the armed occupation of a state capitol, a mob assault on the nation’s Capitol, a plot to kidnap a governor, two attempted assassinations of former President Trump, intelligence indicating an Iranian plot to assassinate the former president and a plot by an Islamic State-inspired individual to carry out a mass shooting on Election Day.” The plot to kidnap Whitmer was spook-infested, and five of the fourteen defendants were cleared. I assume that it should go in the “Why is this different from all the others?” bucket. Nevertheless, its certainly odd that the RAND dude included it.

“Harris says she will be ‘sadly ready’ if Trump prematurely claims victory Tuesday” [The Hill]. “Harris has previously said there are teams in place in the event that Trump challenges the result. Trump has only committed to accepting the election results if he deems them ‘free and fair.’ ABC interviewed Harris six days before Election Day while she was on a three-state swing through North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. While polls have tightened, and some have shifted toward Trump in recent days, Bruce asked Harris if she feels she needs Republicans to vote for her to win. ‘Here’s how I think about it. I really want to bring our country together. We’ve had about a decade of this Trump era that has been all about … dividing people and having Americans point fingers at each other, and I think people are exhausted,’ Harris said.” • Right, which is why Marc Elias is now on the payroll (not that Trump doesn’t have form).

2024

Countdown!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

Lambert here: Tiny margins, but all red. If I were running the Kamala campaign, I’d want to see some blue. Of course, we on the outside might as well be examining the entrails of birds when we try to predict what will happen to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, especially, who will determine the outcome of the election but might as well be quantum foam, but presumably the campaign professionals have better data, and have the situation as under control as it can be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

* * *

“Garbage.” The video at :40. Leaving it here:

Trump (R): “Donald Trump climbs into garbage truck in stunt to call out Biden, Harris” [Global News]. “Speaking to press who had gathered at the photo op, Trump asked, ‘How do you like my garbage truck?’ adding that it was ‘in honour of Kamala (Harris) and Joe Biden.’ He proceeded to say the president ‘should be ashamed of himself.’” • I don’t love Trump. But looking purely at the technical aspects, the man is very, very good at what he does (and seems to have regained the éclat he lost after the two assassination attempts). The best part: He’s still wearing his tie! (And I love the way the Hi-Viz orange vest subtly denatures and inverts the “Orange Man Bad” trope.)

Trump (R): “Billionaire Trump Awkwardly Dresses Up as a Garbage Truck Driver” [Rolling Stone]. • Oh come on:

It’s certainly more effective than biting babies. pic.twitter.com/mrt4HoKmvr

— The Real Liekitisn’t (not Parody) (@liekitisnot) October 31, 2024

Trump (R): “How Trump Kept Biden’s ‘Garbage’ Gaffe From Getting Thrown Out” [RealClearPolitics]. • Puff piece saying it was all Trump’s idea. But it might actually have been; I find it hard to imagine Susie Wiles coming up with it. Stunts are a big part of kayfabe, after all.

Trump (R): “Biden may have handed Trump a big assist with his ‘garbage’ gaffe” [CNN]. It was a Kinsley Gaffe, at least in what remains of Biden’s mind. More: “No one can say how this latest twist in a turbulent campaign will affect the final result. But in the vicious heat of the last week of the deadlocked presidential campaign, when even a few imprecise words can wreak significant political consequences, it may not matter what Biden really meant. Perception is everything. Just when Harris’ team wanted to keep the attention on Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally, which played into her contrast message on Tuesday night, the president handed Harris a political mess. She’s now almost certain to be asked whether she also regards Trump’s backers as ‘garbage.’ Her answer will only prolong the story. The former president is also likely to seize on the gaffe to argue that Democrats view working Americans in the heartland with contempt. A Trump fundraising email Tuesday evening read: ‘FIRST Hillary called you a DEPLORABLE! THEN they called you a FASCIST! And moments ago Kamala’s boss Biden called you GARBAGE!’” • Where’s the lie?

* * *

Trump (R): “Judge declines to block Elon Musk $1 million voter giveaway” [Reuters]. ” A Pennsylvania state judge said on Thursday he would not immediately move forward with a lawsuit that seeks to stop Elon Musk’s $1 million voter giveaway ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election. At a hearing in Pennsylvania, Judge Angelo Foglietta said he would place the lawsuit on hold while a federal court considers whether to take up the case. Musk’s bid to move the case frees him to continue the giveaway, because the matter likely won’t be resolved until after Tuesday’s election. The billionaire entrepreneur, who is spending heavily to back Republican Donald Trump, had been ordered to attend the hearing but did not appear.” • The Trump campaign has one loose cannon. It doesn’t need two.

Trump (R): “Trump Doubles Down After Elon’s Shocking ‘Tank the Economy’ Confession” [The New Republic]. “In an interview with Sean Hannity on Tuesday night, Trump lauded Musk as a ‘very exceptional guy’ and a ‘great cost-cutter’ when asked about a potential role for the billionaire CEO in his Cabinet. But even more unbelievably, the Republican candidate said with confidence that the American people wouldn’t ‘feel’ the economic impacts of cutting trillions from the budget. ‘He’ll cut costs without anybody even knowing it—nobody’s going to notice—nobody is going to feel it,’ Trump told Hannity, confirming that Musk does indeed plan to slash $2 trillion from the government’s budget.” Twitter does still work, even if the Tesla paint booth never has. More: “Musk has proposed heading a ‘Department of Government Efficiency’ under a Trump Cabinet—and the former president has clearly taken him up on it. At Trump’s hate-filled Madison Square Garden rally over the weekend, Musk announced that the target is $2 trillion in cuts.’” • Musk has a world-class case of Main Character Syndrome. Trump already has Musk’s money. If Trump becomes President, he’ll heave Musk over the side whenever he wants, even if Musk can’t entertain such a possibility.

Trump (R): “Workers Say They Were Tricked and Threatened as Part of Elon Musk’s Get-Out-the-Vote Effort” [WIRED]. “‘I was in shock and disbelief,’ says a paid door knocker flown to Michigan to help turn out the vote for former president Donald Trump on behalf of Elon Musk’s America PAC. In Michigan, canvassers and paid door knockers for the former president, contracted by a firm associated with America PAC, have been subjected to poor working conditions: A number of them have been driven around in the back of a seatless U-Haul van, according to video obtained by WIRED, and threatened that their lodging at a local motel wouldn’t be paid for if they didn’t meet canvassing quotas. One door knocker alleges that they didn’t even know they were signing up for anything having to do with Musk or Trump. A representative for Musk and America PAC did not return a request for comment. The contract these door knockers signed with Blitz Canvassing, which is a subcontractor of Musk’s America PAC, says they are ‘expected to maintain a 17-22% engagement rate during the campaign,’ which is a high target relative to the number of people who typically open their door for a stranger. A group of out-of-state America PAC canvassers were told during a recent team meeting that if they didn’t hit their targets, which the door knocker says were more than 1,000 a week on total doors knocked, the organization would stop paying for their motel rooms.” • Musk must be running this operation like Tesla, not SpaceX (from the results, I assume SpaceX isn’t a cesspit of bad labor practices). In would guess this story is too late to affect the campaign, but at what point does Musk, as political deadweight, outweigh the big bucks? My guess is soon, since Trump is already having to clean up after him (see above).

Trump (R): Kamala agrees:

She will be fired soon https://t.co/nMtL8MUQ75

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 31, 2024

But shut up, anyhow. (Seattle Times: “On Wednesday, the youngest-ever chair of the Federal Trade Commission reached the end of her three-year term, during which she helped overhaul the government’s approach to antitrust enforcement and brought a slew of lawsuits against major corporations. Khan, 35, can remain in her seat indefinitely, unless she is replaced. There are factions rooting loudly for each of those outcomes.” • A good interview with Khan.

* * *

Kamala (D): Who did this:

Vice President Harris: Unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe people who disagree with me are the enemy. He wants to put them in jail. I’ll give them a seat at the table pic.twitter.com/KC6ms7nPig

— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) October 30, 2024

Kamala, Kamala, Kamala. They’re Nazis. You don’t give them “a seat at the table”; look what happened to Von Papen and Hindenberg. Our Democracy is at stake! Or if they’re not Nazis, and not attacking Our Democracy, then what is your campaign about?

Kamala (D): “Biden’s Gaffes Complicate Harris’s Final Stretch, Worrying Democratic Insiders” [New York Times]. “Speaking with reporters before boarding Air Force Two outside Washington, she noted that Mr. Biden had ‘clarified his comments.’ But she added: ‘Let me be clear: I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for.” • So Trump is a fascist, but it’s OK to vote for him?

Kamala (D): “Biden Sits Uncomfortably on the Campaign’s Sidelines” [Wall Street Journal]. The deck: “Turning toward building his legacy, the 81-year-old will focus on his presidential library.” When he’s not biting babies. More: “Biden’s team has encountered some resistance raising the roughly $200 million to $300 million Biden’s allies think will be required for it based on past presidential libraries, according to people familiar with the discussions. Part of the problem is that Biden hasn’t been a strong fundraiser. According to one of the people familiar with the efforts, he has eschewed using some of the gimmicks other presidents have used to woo donors, such as inviting mega donors to stay overnight at the White House. Some donors and their advisers say they haven’t been approached but wouldn’t make a decision until election results are clear; some still feel confusion and anger around Biden’s re-election campaign and ultimate exit from the race.” • Maybe the library could have a second-story window with a wagon filled with dung directly under it. They could do re-enactments.

* * *

Kamala (D): “Opinion George W. Bush is running out of time” [Matt Bai, WaPo]. This is actually not as horrid as I expected it to be. “No, I think Bush owes it to the country to condemn Trumpism in this moment because, of all our former leaders, he did the most to create it… From [Obama’s victory after Bush] came a simple ethos in Republican politics: Burn it all down. Trump didn’t spring from nowhere. He was, and is, a vehicle of fury and lost faith. If compassion doesn’t work, then maybe cruelty will. If governing in a democracy means inventing wars and bailing out banks at the expense of soldiers and laid-off workers, then maybe the democratic system itself needs to be demolished — and all its high-mindedness exposed as hypocrisy. It was Bush who opened the door to this rage-filled room full of voices screaming, ‘America First!’ Trump, an instinctive entertainer, simply walked through it.” • We often forget that in practice the Republicans are more democratic than Democrats. The Republican base hated their party leaders and got rid of them. Trump is the result. Not so the Democrats, who pivoted from Biden to Kamala, seemingly in hours, like the good authoritarian followers they are.

* * *

From Carla, “Not so much a plant as a Halloween lament. Sign of the times.” A yard sign of the times, to my technical eye. Have readers spotted similar examples?

(Cf. Lamentations 3:55-66, an imprecatory prayer.)

* * *

GA: “What do early votes, polls show about presidential race in Georgia, a key swing state?” [News and Observer]. “As of Oct. 29, about 3.2 million early votes have been cast in the state, ‘shattering previous early voting performance,’ according to Georgia’s secretary of state. By comparison, at the same stage in 2020, 2.1 million early votes had been cast…. Women, so far, have outpaced men in voting by a margin of nearly 12 points — 55.5% to 43.8%, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab…. This trend has also been observed in other swing states, including Michigan and North Carolina… Hatcher called the early voting data ‘difficult to read,’ and Richey said it ‘can offer limited predictive value on the eventual outcome.’ In sum, Richey said, ‘the close polling margins and demographic composition of early voters suggest that no candidate has a clear edge at this stage. Instead, it seems likely that final outcomes may hinge on Election Day turnout and any last-minute shifts in undecided voters.’”

ME: “Trump wins student mock election in Maine” [Portland Press Herald]. “Trump won 52% of the vote, beating Vice President Kamala Harris by more than 2,400 votes, according to results posted online by the secretary of state’s office.” And the deck: “Maine students have predicted the winner of every presidential election since 2008, but they missed the mark in the 2020 U.S. Senate race by voting against Republican incumbent Susan Collins.” • 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020…. Not that long actually. Even if it does seem like forever.

NC: “Black turnout is lagging in North Carolina, a warning sign for Harris” [Politico]. “Early vote numbers in North Carolina show the electorate skewing older and whiter, compared to the state’s voter registration, a red flag for Democrats who need Black voters to turn out in heavy numbers if Kamala Harris is going to flip this state. As of Wednesday, Black voters make up 18 percent of the electorate in early voting, and some Democratic operatives said they must bump that up to about 20 percent for Harris to be competitive statewide. In 2020, Black voters were 19 percent of the electorate, when Donald Trump narrowly won the state. And Democrats acknowledge that without a swing in their favor in the last days of early voting or on Election Day, it may not be good enough. About 36,000 more African Americans had voted in-person by this point in 2020 than in 2024, and ‘that gap has to be closed among African Americans for Democrats to win,’ said Thomas Mills, a Democratic strategist in the state.”

PA: “The Battle for What May Be the Most Important County in the Country” [The New Republic]. “The polling worries everyone, right and left. While I am in town, the FiveThirtyEight simulation points for the first time in months toward a Trump win. There is a subtle shift in momentum, and you feel it everywhere, like the first chill of autumn. The early voting numbers for Republicans seem to be especially high, though no one can tell if those are new voters or people who have voted for Trump anyway. The consensus seems to be that Harris is running a better campaign than Clinton did in 2016, but Trump is also running a better campaign than he did in 2020. Make of that what you will.” • A good portrait of Erie, even if it does focus — as it probably would if I wrote it — on bookstores, a local Cabernet, a food hall, and gourmet pizza. And also: ‘Not only has Erie picked every president since 2008 correctly, it has been hugely consequential in making those picks. It is a needle that registers every shift in the country’s mood, even if those shifts are happening thousands of miles away. Or, as a minister will put it at a Black church later that evening, “Erie County holds this election upon its shoulders.’”

WI: “Have Democrats found a way to win over rural America? Look at what’s happening in Wisconsin” [Politico]. “But to regain clout in Madison [,WI], they’ll need to rebuild trust with voters in a place that’s become increasingly hostile to Democrats nationwide: rural America. Democrats have a shot in Wisconsin thanks to new voting maps passed after the state’s liberal-controlled high court tossed out the ones crafted by Republicans to tilt in their favor…. Republican leaders are banking that a deep bench of incumbents and a track record of delivering tax cuts will keep rural voters in their camp…. But Democrats are looking to continue a recent string of success in statewide races after winning back the governor’s mansion in 2018 and flipping the state’s Supreme Court from conservative to liberal in 2023. They’re pouring money into more than a dozen battleground seats unlocked by new maps. ”

* * *
* * *

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

Transmission: H5N1

“Federal and State Veterinary Agencies Share Update on HPAI Detections in Oregon Backyard Farm, Including First H5N1 Detections in Swine” (press release) [APHIS, USDA]. “The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Oregon state veterinary officials are investigating positive cases of H5N1 in a backyard farming operation [i.e., not just Big Ag] in Oregon that has a mix of poultry and livestock, including swine…. On Tuesday, Oct. 29, the USDA National Veterinary Services Laboratories also confirmed one of the farm’s five pigs to be infected with H5N1, marking the first detection of H5N1 in swine in the United States. The livestock and poultry on this farm shared water sources, housing, and equipment; in other states, this combination has enabled transmission between species… USDA’s National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) has conducted genomic sequencing of virus from the poultry infected on this farm, and that sequencing has not identified any changes to the H5N1 virus that would suggest to USDA and CDC that it is more transmissible to humans, indicating that the current risk to the public remains low.”

“Bird flu found in a pig in U.S. for the first time, raising concerns about potential risks to humans” [Helen Branswell, STAT]. “Pigs are sometimes called a “mixing vessel” for flu viruses, because they can be infected with both bird flu viruses and human flu viruses. If the animals are co-infected at the same time with two or more viruses, the viruses can swap genes, potentially creating a hybrid virus that is better able to spread to and among people than bird flu viruses typically are. This phenomenon, called reassortment, is what gave rise to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Because pigs can play this role, flu experts have been worried that the H5N1 virus currently spreading in cows in the United States could make its way to pigs — though any version of the H5N1.” And: “Pigs are highly susceptible to flu viruses — human and avian. In fact, over decades, human seasonal flu viruses have found their way into pig populations, where they circulate and reassort…. The fact that many of the viruses in pigs previously circulated in humans indicates they have the genetic know-how to do what H5N1 has not been able to do on its own, but could potentially acquire the capacity to do, if it underwent the right gene swap. ”

“USDA announces first H5N1 avian flu detection in US pigs” [Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy]. “Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), which publishes CIDRAP News, said it’s not yet known if the pig was truly infected or if the nasal passages had been contaminated by environmental exposure, a situation strongly suspected when a Colorado poultry culler tested positive in 2022 during nasal swabbing that was done as part of illness monitoring. He said the necropsy examination will reveal if the pig was truly infected and if the virus was found deep in the pig’s lungs. “We’ll have to wait and see,” Osterholm said, urging caution in interpreting the new development. He noted that earlier scientific work suggested that the virus doesn’t easily infect pigs.”

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits in the US fell by 12,000 from the previous week to 216,000 on the period ending October 26th, reaching the same level of mid-May of this year, and well below market expectations of 230,000. The decline reinforced the view that the U.S. labor market remains resilient to the Federal Reserve’s restrictive interest rates, bolstering expectations that the central bank will hold off on further aggressive rate cuts in upcoming decisions.”

Employment Situation: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” [Trading Economics]. “US employers announced 55,597 job cuts in October 2024, below 72,821 in September, but above 50.9% from 36,836 in October 2023. Aerospace/Defense led the cuts (18,465), primarily on Boeing’s announcement to cut 17K jobs, followed by Retailers (7,696) and Consumer Products manufacturers (4,571). October’s total marks the seventh time this year job cut announcements are higher year-on-year.”

Income: “United States Personal Income” [Trading Economics]. “US personal income rose by 0.3% from the previous month to $24.948 trillion in September of 2024, in line with market expectations and picking up from the 0.2% increase in the previous month, extending the view of a strong US economy despite the prolonged period of tight credit conditions. Compensation for employees continued to rise sharply….”

Inflation: “United States Core PCE Price Index MoM” [Trading Economics]. “The US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, rose by 0.3% from the previous month in September of 2024, the highest gain in five months.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Stock Won’t Budge Despite All the Bad News. This Is Why” [Barron’s]. “There is a lot for Boeing investors to deal with these days. Through it all, the stock has been remarkably stable. There is a good reason for that… Boeing stock seems unaffected by all that troubling news. The reason is fairly simple: It’s half a trillion dollars. That’s roughly the value of Boeing’s backlog. Boeing can make money. It just needs to make planes. Boeing delivered 806 planes in 2018. Wall Street believes Boeing can beat that number in 2028. Wall Street’s free cash flow estimate for 2028 is about $10 billion, according to FactSet. The estimate hasn’t moved much over the past three months. No change in the long-term cash flow outlook. No change in the stock price… The big question for investors is what is the direction of 2028 free cash flow? Will it be better or worse than $10 billion? That’s hard to say. It’s a long way off, but that answer will determine how the stock does in the coming year or two. And yes, Boeing management and workers need to make peace before that. The workers make the planes.” • Well, maybe if Wall Street hadn’t given Boeing a $20 billion reacharound, the workers would be getting back to work making planes right now.

Manufacturing: “Pressure mounting for Boeing strike to end from Washington business leaders” [King5]. “The longer it goes on, however, the more business leaders across the U.S. are vocalizing their desire for an end to the strike. The Association of Washington Business’ Kris Johnson told KING 5, ‘It’s the economy that’s at stake.’ He and dozens of other business chamber leaders across 41 other states sent a letter Wednesday to leaders of both Boeing and the IAM District 751 union, pleading for an urgent resolution. The groups wrote, ‘We were extremely disappointed that union membership rejected the most recent contract proposal.’” • And I’m sure the workers were “extremely disappointed” in the contract, ffs.

Manufacturing: “The union fight to resuscitate the Boeing pension is a battle over the American dream” [MarketWatch]. “A pension, also known as a defined-benefit plan, is typically a guaranteed payout from your employer in retirement. A 401(k), or defined-contribution plan, is a workplace retirement savings and investment plan in which contributions come out of an employee’s paycheck and may be matched by the employer. ‘401(k)s just aren’t cutting it; it’s a failed experiment for millions of people. 401(k)s put all the risks and responsibilities on the individual, who may be debating between keeping the lights on or buying groceries,’ said Karen Friedman, executive director of the Pension Rights Center. “Pensions have always been part of the American dream and retirement security — so that’s what’s at stake. This [union battle] is stimulating a debate on these issues.’ Boeing reiterated the statement it has made since September.’ There is no scenario where the company reactivates a defined-benefit pension for this or any other population. They’re prohibitively expensive and that’s why virtually all private employers have transitioned away from them to defined-contribution plans,’ the company said. Bank of America analysts estimated in a research report earlier this month that reinstating the pension would cost Boeing about $25 billion over a 15-year time horizon, or $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion a year. ‘Given the state of affairs in the company’s balance sheet, the ask for a defined-benefit program restart would seem to be a nonstarter on a number of levels,’ analysts at Wolfe Research said in a recent report.” • Totally. I mean, that’s a lot of executive pensions and stock buybacks, alll gone, and who wants that?

Manufacturing: “It’s a human issue with Boeing” (Letter to the Editor) [Columbia Basin Herald]. “This strike is about respect and human factors, not money. The return of our pension is paramount. Company leadership and their contract negotiators are snowblind and tone-deaf. We have long memories and have been grievously disrespected these past 10 years we’ve gone without any contract improvements. The Machinist Union membership didn’t ruin this once great company. Company management owns the debacle. The media keeps harping that we won’t win our pension back. That is what the robber barons said a century or more ago about unions winning the 40-hour work week, overtime pay, vacation time and medical benefits among other human factor issues that we have fought and paid for in blood. This is the new ‘Gilded Age’ we are living through. Working-class women and men are standing up to the oligarchs and corporate greed. This is a fight that we have to and will win for all working families.” • I wonder whether this sentiment is shared by the 36% who voted for the current contract (and what Boeing management and the union are doing about that).

Manufacturing: “The Mysterious Case of Boeing and the 350 Missing Planes” [Barron’s]. “Boeing has experienced years of struggle tied to design and production problems with the 737 MAX. As a result, it doesn’t provide guidance. Wall Street still makes projections. At the start of 2024, analysts expected Boeing to deliver about 700 planes and generate an operating profit of about $5.5 billion, according to FactSet. Now the estimates are 377 jets and an operating loss of more than $7 billion. Those numbers—both Boeing’s and Airbus’—mean 353 planes have vanished from delivery estimates. The number will creep higher the longer the Boeing labor strike that began on Sept. 13 goes on…. The missing 2024 deliveries might end up equating to about 2% of total airline capacity. That might not sound like a lot, but it’s enough to affect airline capacity planning and, therefore, airfares.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing skips China’s biggest airshow amid spending curbs” [Business Times]. “The US planemaker will not be one of the exhibitors at the Zhuhai Airshow next month, a spokesperson said in an e-mail response. The planemaker has previously said it is looking to curb spending amid a crippling strike… Boeing has also been caught up in the geopolitical tensions between the US and China, and new orders for the planemaker have been scarce in what is one of the world’s fastest growing aviation markets.”

Manufacturing: “China voices support for Nasa over botched Boeing Starliner space mission” [South China Morning Post]. • When your enemy’s drowning, throw ’em an anvil.

Manufacturing: “Boeing strike will dent last jobs report before election” [CNBC]. “Economists expect the U.S. to have added 100,000 jobs in October. Bank of America this week forecast that payroll tallies will be at least 50,000 lower than they would have otherwise been because of the strikes and affects of both Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton.”

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 60 Greed (previous close: 60 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 62 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 30 at 1:00:29 PM ET.

Gallery

Onward to Cubism (1891):

Reminds me of Eloise in Paris, I can’t think why:

Zeitgeist Watch

“Shroud of Turin ‘does not show face of Jesus’ – in fact he never touched it says study” [Daily Star]. “[The study] found that the impression on the fabric could not have been made by a three-dimensional human body, but was perhaps from a bas-relief – a shallow carving. Author of the study Cicero Moraes, used a virtual fabric to carry out his tests and said that when laid flat it showed ‘a distorted and significantly more robust image’ than that on the shroud, as a result of the change from 3D to 2D.’ He said the findings were easy to explain and added: ‘The explanation of the differences is very simple.’ ‘When you wrap a 3D object with a fabric, and that object leaves a pattern like blood stains, these stains generate a more robust and more deformed structure in relation to the source. ‘So, roughly speaking, what we see as a result of printing stains from a human body would be a more swollen and distorted version of it, not an image that looks like a photocopy.’ ‘A bas-relief, however, wouldn’t cause the image to deform, resulting in a figure that resembles a photocopy of the body.’” • I’m glad we’ve got that cleared up, at least.

Class Warfare

“#JeNeSuisPasLiberal: Entering the Quagmire of Online Leftism” [David Auerbach, The American Reader]. • I hate this kind of chart — who invented it, McKinsey? — but FWIW here it is:

News of the Wired

“Digging Into PlantStudio, a Bit Late” [Pketh]. “PlantStudio is a surprisingly deep botany simulator for creating and arranging 3D models of herbaceous plants based on how real plants grow, change, fruit, and flower, over their life cycles. Because the last release of the app was in 2002, and it was for Windows 95/98/2000/NT4, we’ve got a little bit of work to do to get it running on macOS.” • Indeed! Looks fun, though!

“You Don’t Need to Be a Billionaire to Ride in Her Rocket Car” [Wall Street Journal]. “When my father was growing up, he used to go to Cleveland’s Euclid Beach amusement park. He had his first date there, and so did many of his friends. There was a ride with space rocket swings called the Rocket Ships. When the park closed in 1969, it was the end of an era. One day, in the 1970s, my dad was driving in Cleveland and saw one of the old rockets from that amusement park ride in the backyard of a house. He parked out front and sat there, remembering the glory days. A guy came out and said, ‘Hey, can I help you?’ My dad asked about the rocket, and the guy said, ‘You want it? You can have it.’ [His] mind was amazing. He could make a car out of anything. I have a car he built out of a bathtub. He decided to build the Rocket Car, a street-legal vehicle he could use to drive his family around. My dad mated the original rocket with a subframe from an Oldsmobile Toronado and a modified Oldsmobile ‘Rocket 455’ engine—so it all fit together. Inspired by a school science project my brother Eric was doing, my dad used chains and gears from heavy equipment in the steering mechanism. My father built the first Rocket Car before I was born, but he found a second rocket and built a second car for my mother, Leanne Heitman, after I was born.”

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From JC:

JC commments: “Taken on my daily walk around the golf course with the pooch. Pooch not included.”

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not covered by the annual NC fundraiser. Material here is Lambert’s, and does not express the views of the Naked Capitalism site. If you see a link you especially like, or an item you wouldn’t see anywhere else, please do not hesitate to express your appreciation in tangible form. Remember, a tip jar is for tipping! Regular positive feedback both makes me feel good and lets me know I’m on the right track with coverage. When I get no donations for three or four days I get worried. More tangibly, a constant trickle of donations helps me with expenses, and I factor in that trickle when setting fundraising goals: